Portfolio Construction
Designing Your PortfolioThe following steps are necessary to establish your portfolio:
If you don't feel comfortable in performing these steps yourself, consider consulting a professional financial advisor. Table 1. Expected Real Returnsa,b
Table 2. Risk of Lossa
The following on-line questionnaires may help investors assess their risk tolerance: BMO
Investor Profiler Portfolio EvolutionIt may be useful to consider three stages of portfolio evolution:
The asset allocation or location during Asset Accumulation is often different from that desired Early in Retirement. For example, dividend-paying common stocks may be in the RRSP, even though they qualify for the dividend tax credit. Some swapping of assets from the non-registered accounts may be required after retirement. If so, the tax consequences should be examined beforehand so that more tax is not paid than is saved. Adjusting the portfolio in a tax-efficient manner may take 3-5 years. As was seen in the section on withdrawal strategies, the sustainable inflation-adjusted portfolio withdrawal rate is about 4%. Therefore, the retiree may wish to adjust his portfolio so that it provides an overall dividend yield of about 4%. As discussed under withdrawal strategies, if an asset swap or sale from the non-registered account is necessary, the components with the highest adjusted cost base should be sold or swapped first. Usually, this is a "last in - first out" (LIFO) method. However, since the CRA will disallow capital losses on transfers to an RRSP, it may be desirable to wait until a security is in a profit position before swapping it. Another reason for making a swap early in retirement may be to access high-dividend securities that have been placed in the RRSP during asset accumulation in order to minimize tax drag. For example, an investor in his mid 40's may have decided to add REITs to his portfolio in order to improve diversification. He has no immediate need of the income, and will face a tax drag of about 2% per annum if he puts them in his non-registered portfolio. So, he puts them in his RRSP and puts low-dividend securities in his non-registered portfolio. Shortly after retirement, he switches the REITs out of his RRSP and low-dividend securities with small capital gains in, paying the capital gains tax on the securities but gaining access to the income from the REITs. Some of the REIT income will now be tax-deferred. For this strategy to be worthwhile, the value of the tax saved by deferring part of the tax on the REIT income must be greater than the tax paid on the securities that are swapped. The investor may later decide to switch the REITs back into the registered account if it is converted to an RRIF in order to meet the mandatory minimum withdrawal requirements. When the investor approaches age 69, he or she will have to decide whether to convert his RRSP to an RRIF, and may want to consider purchasing an annuity. At this time, professional advice should be sought. Balanced Funds or GIC'sBeginning investors may be faced with the problem of where to invest modest amounts of, say, a few thousand dollars, and may be unwilling to take the time to learn how to invest. Two different approaches suggest themselves; both are particularly applicable to all-RRSP portfolios with no non-registered components because they contain interest-bearing components that are taxed at the full marginal rate. The first alternative, which may be suitable for young or middle-aged investors with little interest in learning how to invest, is simply to place the entire portfolio in a low-cost balanced mutual fund. Commentator Dan Hallet has recommended funds from Mawer or Saxon for this purpose, while columnist Jon Chevreau has recommended Trimark Income Growth and PH&N Balanced. Globefund has filters that can be used to check the historical performance of low-cost balanced funds. Although the single-balanced-fund approach is not as cost effective as the more sophisticated multicomponent portfolios given below, the additional monetary cost is relatively modest in a small portfolio: an additional MER of, say, 1.5% is only $150/year on a $10000 portfolio. Some investors may wish the hands-off peace of mind that the single fund provides; a conservatively-managed balanced fund is similar to the portfolio used by many pension fund managers - although they may only pay 1/10 the cost! Beginning investors can also start off with a balanced fund, then switch to lower-cost alternatives as the portfolio grows. If the fund is in an RRSP, the switch can be made without triggering capital gains tax. Balanced funds may not be a desirable alternative for very elderly investors because of the possibility of short-term loss. An all-GIC portfolio with GICs laddered for, say, 1-5 years, will preserve capital while giving a modest return. The Four-Component PortfolioAlthough a number of different portfolio components are listed in Table 1, investors who are early in the asset-accumulation phase can also obtain adequate diversification with a simple, four-component portfolio. The four components are:
A separate cash component is not required during asset accumulation because of the yearly contributions.
An even simpler alternative would be to use a balanced mutual fund, as in the previous section. However, the four-component portfolio allows tax-efficient allocation of each of the four components (with the bonds or GICs inside an RRSP), and rebalancing back to the target allocation with the yearly contribution. It is also cheaper than a balanced fund. Estimated returns for several four-component portfolios based on index funds are given here. An example of a four-component portfolio is given in the section on portfolio construction. Sample PortfoliosWith the above points in mind, let's construct a few sample portfolios. I will base these all on a 50:50 equity:income allocation, but the equity content of the resulting portfolios can be scaled as necessary. Let's use the FPX Balanced to examine how portfolio diversification and dividend income could be improved. Portfolio 1. Base Case - FPX Balanced
This portfolio (or its four-component alternative) may suffice during asset accumulation, but it does not have adequate income for a retiree and contains no real-return bonds. Note: Some investors consider the FPX Balanced to have too high a Canadian equity content and would increase the US and EAFE equity content while reducing the S&P/TSX 60 component. One alternative portfolio would simply divide the equity portion equally between Canadian, US, and International components. Another alternative would eliminate the Canadian equity component entirely. The approach taken depends, in part, on whether the individual has other Canadian assets (such as real estate), and whether he or she wishes to spend a significant amount of time outside Canada and wants extra exposure to other currencies. Now, lets add RRBs to improve diversification. This is perhaps the single biggest improvement to the portfolio, since it adds a large quantity of an uncorrelated asset class, and will significantly reduce the risk. Portfolio 2. FPX Balanced with RRBs
The bond ladder gives access to cash at periodic intervals. As each bond matures, it is rolled into a new five-year bond, along with additional savings and the RRB interest. This portfolio is also quite suitable during asset accumulation. Now let's replace the large-cap S&P 500 with a broader representation of the US market by substituting the Vanguard VTI ETF based on the Wilshire 5000: Portfolio 3. FPX Balanced with RRBs and Wilshire 5000
We could also substitute a S&P/TSX Composite (previously the TSE 300) based ETF or index fund for the S&P/TSX 60 to get broader representation of the Canadian market. However, with the more-narrowly-based Canadian market, any improvement will be quite modest. A better approach (see below) is to include Canadian value stocks. As the investor approaches retirement, he may want to start building a position in Canadian dividend-paying stocks: Portfolio 4. Enhanced Income with Dividend Growth
This portfolio uses the "Dividend Growth" strategy described in the section on Canadian stocks to add income. The S&P 60 units have been partially replaced by bank and utility stocks. This change also gives a value emphasis to the Canadian equity allocation. After retirement, the investor may wish to replace his remaining S&P/TSX 60 units with REITs and trusts to further boost income, provided that the S&P/TSX 60 units can be sold without incurring a major tax penalty: Portfolio 5. Further Enhanced Income with REITs and Trusts
This portfolio can provide a dividend income approaching the 4% sustainable withdrawal rate. The oil and gas trust is a "lifestyle hedge" that shields the investor from energy price swings, but may decrease in value as the oil is consumed. Finally, the investor may wish to increase the value and small-cap weightings of his US holdings to further improve diversification and capture the extra return (if it persists). Again, this change will only be made if it can be done without incurring a tax liability. Portfolio 6. Value and Small-Cap American Exposurea,b
Further portfolio construction could include: adding an actively-managed Canadian small-cap mutual fund; adding US REITs; replacing the EAFE funds with individual European, Pacific ex-Japan, and Japanese funds; adding emerging market funds; or adding actively-managed international value or small-cap mutual funds. Building the Desired PortfolioOnce the portfolio components have been determined, the investor must then establish a brokerage account (if he or she doesn't already have one) and purchase the desired components. A DIY investor will probably wish to establish an account at a discount brokerage in order to minimize costs. RRSP accounts should be consolidated at the same dealer if possible to facilitate swaps between registered and non-registered accounts. The investor must then decide which securities or funds to use and which components will be inside and which outside the RRSP, and must evaluate the costs (such as deferred service charges) and/or delays (due to GICs held at existing institutions) in establishing the final asset allocation.
Another simple portfolio could be made by assigning 40% to a bond index and dividing the remaining 60% equally between Canadian, US, and EAFE equity index funds. Investors who feel the FPX Balanced is too heavily concentrated in Canada may prefer such a distribution. Alternatively, investors with significantly larger portfolios (say, $50-$100K) could divide the bond component equally between a bond index fund and RRBs. Other variations include the substitution of a Canadian dividend fund for the Canadian index fund, or the use of a bond or GIC ladder instead of a bond index. Most investors will face a situation significantly more complex than Ed's. They may have GICs at several institutions, mutual funds with delayed service charges, and registered and non-registered holdings. Each current holding will be needed to considered individually to decide if it should be retained (in general, high-cost holdings should be replaced by lower-cost alternatives if the payback time for switching costs, including taxes, is less than one year.) Consolidating the accounts may take several years. It may, for example, be desirable to take advantage of a market low to replace unwanted mutual funds by index alternatives without triggering capital gains taxes. On the other hand, if a mutual fund is outperforming in the current difficult market conditions (as some value-based funds are), there may be no need to replace it. Example 2. Pat is 58 and has a $1,000,000 portfolio, which he has decided to start managing himself. The non-registered portion is $600K, and contains mutual funds and several individual stocks. The registered portion is divided between an RRSP and a locked-in RSP (LRSP) from a previous employer; both consist of a six-year bond ladder (75%) and some international mutual funds (25%). Overall, the portfolio is 40% in mutual funds with an average MER of 2.5%. The total mutual fund expenses therefore amount to $10000 per year. None of the mutual funds has delayed service charges (DSCs) associated with redemption. In complex cases like Pat's, considerable evaluation is required. Some investors may wish to consider consulting a fee-only financial planner in order to establish a multiyear plan that meets their objectives. Appendix: Compound Interest Formulae and Weighted ReturnsThe formula for compound interest is used to calculate future values. This formula is: FV = PV * (1 + r/100)n .... (1) where "FV" is the future value, "PV" is the present value, "r" is the rate of return in percent per year and "n" is the number of years. To obtain the rate of return needed for a present value to grow to a future value, the rearranged formula below can be used: r = 100 * [ ( FV / PV )1/n - 1 ] .... (2) An approximation that can be derived from the above formula is the rule of 72, which states that 72 divided by the percent return gives the number of years required to double your money - e.g. 72/6 or 12 years for a 6% return. The above formulae do not take into account additions or withdrawals. To make an approximate correction for additions and withdrawals, first separately subtotal all additions and all withdrawals. Then calculate the total change, T: T = Additions - Withdrawals .... (3) For example, if you contributed $2500 but withdrew $1000, T would be $1500. Then use the modified formula below: r = 100 * { [ ( FV - T/2 ) / ( PV + T/2 ) ]1/n - 1 } .... (4) Gummy has derived more sophisticated formulae to take additions and withdrawals into account, and has provided some calculators. They are available here. Weighted returns for a portfolio are calculated by multiplying the estimated future return for each asset class by its portfolio weight and summing the results. For example, if a portfolio contains 60% stocks and 40% bonds, with the stocks estimated to provide 5% after inflation and the bonds 3.5%, the portfolio return is 5%*0.6 + 3.5%*0.4 = 4.4%. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||